🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Dunkerque run riot with a 2-6 hammering of Boulogne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat Boulogne 2-6 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.21 xG and Dunkerque 1.39 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. Dunkerque outscored their 1.39 projection by 4.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.83 / defence 1.13 against Dunkerque attack 1.03 / defence 1.21, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 31% | Draw 31% | Dunkerque 39%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 46%, Dunkerque 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Dunkerque's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Boulogne 1.18 PPG, Dunkerque 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights