Bastia 2-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bastia and Rodez meet at Stade Armand-Césari in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stade Armand-Césari this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rodez (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bastia. A 0.50 PPG lead over Rodez (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bastia, 3 for Rodez and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Rodez winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 47% versus Rodez 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 43% | Rodez 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.99 xG and Rodez 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.838 / defence 0.825 | Rodez attack 1.068 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.139. Data: 47 Bastia games / 48 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 34% | Draw 31% | Rodez 35%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Rodez 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Rodez lead the H2H ledger, but Bastia carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bastia (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 50% | Rodez 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 34% | Draw 31% | Rodez 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Bastia 0.99 / Rodez 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.838 / def 0.825 | Rodez attack 1.068 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Rodez (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Rodez xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Rodez kick off?
Bastia vs Rodez kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Rodez?
Bastia 2 - 2 Rodez.
Where is Bastia vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Rodez part of?
Bastia vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 34% chance of winning, Rodez a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bastia and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Rodez?
Record (6 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 2 | Rodez 3W.
What form are Bastia and Rodez in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Rodez (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Bastia vs Rodez?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bastia's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.07x) against Bastia's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
34%
2.92
31%
3.24
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.99
1.00
Rodez xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Bastia and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Bastia and 1.00 for Rodez, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia's recent record stands at 17W 14D 16L from 47 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 16L across 47 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Bastia against 1.43 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 9W 8D 6L from 23 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 8W 5D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.60 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 66%.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Rodez in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 games (1.38 PPG), while Rodez have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Rodez away?
Bastia's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.52 PPG; Rodez away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Bastia or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Rodez in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bastia
4
Draws
4
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Bastia have won 2, Rodez have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Rodez 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 44%, Rodez 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bastia) and 56% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bastia's recent matches and 61% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bastia's recent games and 56% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Rodez tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Rodez in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia and Rodez share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 11, as Bastia and Rodez drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.99 xG and Rodez 1.00 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.84 / defence 0.82 against Rodez attack 1.07 / defence 0.83, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 34% | Draw 31% | Rodez 35%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 43%, Rodez 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.38 PPG, Rodez 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.