Bastia 0-0 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees RED Star FC 93 travel to Stade Armand Cesari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 December 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stade Armand Cesari this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand Cesari than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RED Star FC 93 — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bastia have won 1, RED Star FC 93 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Bastia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 43% versus RED Star FC 93 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 33% | RED Star FC 93 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.85 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.814 / defence 1.173 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.976 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.208. Data: 49 Bastia games / 49 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 23% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 49%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | RED Star FC 93 2.04. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 70% | RED Star FC 93 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Armand Cesari • Kick-off: Friday 5 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 23% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Bastia 0.85 / RED Star FC 93 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.814 / def 1.173 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.976 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
RED Star FC 93 xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 December 2025 at Stade Armand Cesari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Bastia 0 - 0 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand Cesari.
What competition is Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 23% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bastia and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and RED Star FC 93?
Record (2 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 1 | RED Star FC 93 0W.
What form are Bastia and RED Star FC 93 in?
Bastia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.81) and RED Star FC 93's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
23%
4.32
28%
3.63
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.24
1.38
RED Star FC 93 xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
6%
17.25
21%
4.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 14.8 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bastia and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Bastia and 1.38 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia come into this having played 49 games, going 12W 19D 18L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RED Star FC 93 sit at 1.35 PPG from 49 outings (17W 15D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.12 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bastia's home form reads 10W 9D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, RED Star FC 93 have taken 1.33 points per game from 24 outings (8W 8D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.18 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 12W 19D 18L in their last 49 games (1.12 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Bastia's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.62 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Bastia or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Bastia
1
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and RED Star FC 93?
From 3 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when RED Star FC 93 4-3 Bastia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 54%, RED Star FC 93 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bastia) and 46% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bastia's recent matches and 50% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bastia's recent games and 46% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and RED Star FC 93 finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.85 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.38 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. RED Star FC 93 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.81 / defence 1.17 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 23% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 49%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 33%, RED Star FC 93 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.12 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.