Bastia 1-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade Armand Cesari to face Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 15 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bastia haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bastia at Stade Armand Cesari this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand Cesari than their overall form suggests.
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Bastia, 1.20 for PAU — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bastia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAU in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bastia lead 3W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 50% versus PAU 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 38% | PAU 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.93 xG and PAU 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.117 / defence 0.971 | PAU attack 0.996 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.226. Data: 34 Bastia games / 35 PAU games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bastia 54% | Draw 23% | PAU 23%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | PAU 4.35. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 60% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Armand Cesari • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 54% | Draw 23% | PAU 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Bastia 1.93 / PAU 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.117 / def 0.971 | PAU attack 0.996 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Bastia (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.19
PAU xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs PAU kick off?
Bastia vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Stade Armand Cesari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs PAU?
Bastia 1 - 1 PAU.
Where is Bastia vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand Cesari.
What competition is Bastia vs PAU part of?
Bastia vs PAU is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 54% chance of winning, PAU a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bastia and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and PAU?
Record (8 meetings): Bastia 3W | Draws 3 | PAU 2W.
What form are Bastia and PAU in?
Bastia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. PAU (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bastia's attack rating (1.12) and PAU's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.00x) against Bastia's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (34/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.30
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Bastia xG
Total xG
3.11
1.19
PAU xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
3%
30.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Bastia and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Bastia and 1.19 for PAU, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia come into this having played 34 games, going 11W 15D 8L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. Bastia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.29 PPG from 34 outings (11W 11D 12L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Bastia against 1.29 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bastia's home form reads 8W 7D 1L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PAU have taken 0.75 points per game from 16 outings (2W 6D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.15 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Pre-Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and PAU in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 11W 15D 8L in their last 34 games (1.41 PPG), while PAU have gone 11W 11D 12L in their last 34 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or PAU away?
Bastia's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.94 PPG; PAU away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Bastia or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, PAU in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 2-6 on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bastia
5
Draws
2
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, PAU have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when PAU 2-2 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and PAU?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 56%, PAU 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bastia) and 56% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; PAU in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Bastia's games and 62% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bastia vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bastia's recent games and 56% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and PAU tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, PAU in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia and PAU share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 2, as Bastia and PAU drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.93 xG and PAU 1.19 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bastia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.12 / defence 0.97 against PAU attack 1.00 / defence 1.13, drawn from 34/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 54% | Draw 23% | PAU 23%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 38%, PAU 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.41 PPG, PAU 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.