Bastia 2-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Paris FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Paris FC travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 September 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bastia's home record at Stade Armand-Césari: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris FC's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Bastia) versus 1.70 (Paris FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bastia, 3 for Paris FC and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Paris FC trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 43% versus Paris FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 40% | Paris FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.79 xG and Paris FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.794 / defence 0.830 | Paris FC attack 1.053 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.098. Bastia's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Paris FC's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Bastia games / 42 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 29% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Paris FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Bastia's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.75 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 30% | Paris FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 29% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Bastia 0.79 / Paris FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.794 / def 0.830 | Paris FC attack 1.053 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Paris FC xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Paris FC kick off?
Bastia vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Paris FC?
Bastia 2 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Bastia vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Paris FC part of?
Bastia vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 29% chance of winning, Paris FC a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Bastia and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Paris FC?
Record (6 meetings): Bastia 2W | Draws 1 | Paris FC 3W.
What form are Bastia and Paris FC in?
Bastia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Paris FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.79x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
29%
3.48
33%
3.01
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.75
0.96
Paris FC xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 16.7 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Bastia and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Bastia and 0.96 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bastia come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 11D 15L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.64 PPG from 42 outings (19W 12D 11L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.40 PPG, Paris FC on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bastia's home form reads 9W 6D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Early Season
Paris FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 19W 12D 11L in their last 42 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Paris FC away?
Bastia's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.57 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Bastia or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Paris FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Paris FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
1
Draws
4
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Paris FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 38%, Paris FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bastia) and 33% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Paris FC in 33%; Bastia have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bastia's recent matches and 48% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bastia's recent games and 33% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Paris FC tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bastia defy the odds to beat Paris FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Paris FC 2-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.79 xG and Paris FC 0.96 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.79 / defence 0.83 against Paris FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.79, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 29% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 38%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 40%, Paris FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.40 PPG, Paris FC 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.