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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Laval cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bastia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval beat Bastia 0-2 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.99 xG and Laval 1.09 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Laval outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.88 / defence 1.11 against Laval attack 0.82 / defence 0.87, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 32% | Draw 30% | Laval 38%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 33%, Laval 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Laval's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bastia 1.15 PPG, Laval 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Laval (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights