Bastia 0-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bastia at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Clermont Foot make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 18 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Bastia (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bastia's home record at Stade Armand-Césari: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Bastia. A 0.80 PPG lead over Clermont Foot (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 48% versus Clermont Foot 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 43% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.48 xG and Clermont Foot 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.935 / defence 0.909 | Clermont Foot attack 0.667 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.117. Data: 45 Bastia games / 8 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 56% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 17%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Clermont Foot 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bastia (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 50% | Clermont Foot 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 56% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 38% | xG Bastia 1.48 / Clermont Foot 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.935 / def 0.909 | Clermont Foot attack 0.667 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Bastia (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Clermont Foot xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Bastia vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Clermont Foot?
Bastia 0 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Bastia vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Clermont Foot part of?
Bastia vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 56% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Bastia and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bastia and Clermont Foot in?
Bastia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Bastia vs Clermont Foot?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.94) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.67x) against Bastia's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 45/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
56%
1.77
26%
3.78
17%
5.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.16
0.68
Clermont Foot xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.86
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
4%
25.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Bastia and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Bastia and 0.68 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 11D 15L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 0.79 PPG from 42 outings (7W 12D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bastia's home form reads 8W 7D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 0.70 points per game from 20 outings (3W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.81 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 7W 12D 23L in their last 42 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Clermont Foot away?
Bastia's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.55 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Bastia or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bastia
3
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Clermont Foot?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 45%, Clermont Foot 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bastia) and 55% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 30% of games; Clermont Foot in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Bastia's recent matches and 45% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bastia's recent games and 55% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 9, as Bastia and Clermont Foot drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.48 xG and Clermont Foot 0.68 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Clermont Foot attack 0.67 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 56% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 17%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 43%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.