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Annecy cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bastia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Bastia 0-2 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.78 xG and Annecy 1.20 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.67 / defence 0.96 against Annecy attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 24% | Draw 30% | Annecy 46%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 30%, Annecy 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Annecy's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bastia 1.16 PPG, Annecy 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights