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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Annecy run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Saint Etienne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Saint Etienne 4-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.99 xG and Saint Etienne 1.31 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Saint Etienne attack 1.06 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 28% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 44%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 36%, Saint Etienne 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.43 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights