Annecy 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Rodez travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.20 PPG versus Rodez's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Annecy, 3 for Rodez and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 1–5 with Rodez winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Rodez in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 50% versus Rodez 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 52% | Rodez 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.53 xG and Rodez 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.956 / defence 1.154 | Rodez attack 1.351 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.070. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Rodez have an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Annecy games / 64 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 23% | Rodez 41%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Rodez 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 20% | Rodez 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 23% | Rodez 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Annecy 1.53 / Rodez 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.956 / def 1.154 | Rodez attack 1.351 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Rodez (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Rodez xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Rodez kick off?
Annecy vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 March 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Rodez?
Annecy 1 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Annecy vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Rodez part of?
Annecy vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 35% chance of winning, Rodez a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Annecy and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Rodez?
Record (5 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 1 | Rodez 3W.
What form are Annecy and Rodez in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Rodez (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Annecy's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
35%
2.83
23%
4.28
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Annecy xG
Total xG
3.19
1.67
Rodez xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
7%
15.00
9%
11.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Annecy and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Annecy and 1.67 for Rodez, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 23W 16D 25L from 64 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 23L across 64 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.33 PPG, Rodez on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 12W 7D 12L from 31 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 9W 9D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.66 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 66%.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Rodez in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 23W 16D 25L in their last 64 games (1.33 PPG), while Rodez have gone 23W 18D 23L in their last 64 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Rodez away?
Annecy's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.39 PPG; Rodez away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Annecy or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Rodez in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Rodez runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2024, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Annecy
2
Draws
5
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Rodez?
From 9 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Rodez have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Annecy 2-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 45%, Rodez 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Annecy) and 64% (Rodez). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Annecy's recent matches and 64% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Annecy's matches and 64% of Rodez's.
Do Annecy and Rodez tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Rodez in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy and Rodez finished level at 1-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.53 xG and Rodez 1.67 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Rodez attack 1.35 / defence 1.23, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 35% | Draw 23% | Rodez 41%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 52%, Rodez 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.33 PPG, Rodez 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.