Annecy 2-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Annecy welcome PAU to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Annecy have posted 7W 0D 3L at Parc des Sports — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.60 PPG, PAU 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Annecy, 1 for PAU and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
PAU trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 55% versus PAU 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 57% | PAU 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.84 xG and PAU 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.069 / defence 0.851 | PAU attack 0.974 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.123. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Annecy games / 49 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 59% | Draw 23% | PAU 19%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | PAU 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Annecy (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 50% | PAU 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 59% | Draw 23% | PAU 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Annecy 1.84 / PAU 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.069 / def 0.851 | PAU attack 0.974 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Annecy (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.93
PAU xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs PAU kick off?
Annecy vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs PAU?
Annecy 2 - 0 PAU.
Where is Annecy vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs PAU part of?
Annecy vs PAU is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 59% chance of winning, PAU a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Annecy and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and PAU?
Record (4 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 2 | PAU 1W.
What form are Annecy and PAU in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Annecy vs PAU?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Annecy's attack rating (1.07) and PAU's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.44
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.77
0.93
PAU xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
3%
33.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Annecy and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Annecy and 0.93 for PAU, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs PAU?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 14D 18L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.35 PPG from 49 outings (17W 15D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.33 PPG, PAU on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Annecy's home form reads 9W 6D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.21 points per game from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.49 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and PAU in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 17W 14D 18L in their last 49 games (1.33 PPG), while PAU have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or PAU away?
Annecy's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.38 PPG; PAU away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Annecy or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, PAU in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and PAU runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2026, when Annecy won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting PAU specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
2
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and PAU?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, PAU have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Annecy 5-1 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 50%, PAU 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Annecy and 67% for PAU. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Annecy's games and 71% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Annecy's matches and 67% of PAU's.
Do Annecy and PAU tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, PAU in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat PAU 2-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.84 xG and PAU 0.93 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PAU landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.07 / defence 0.85 against PAU attack 0.97 / defence 1.22, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 59% | Draw 23% | PAU 19%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 57%, PAU 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAU's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.33 PPG, PAU 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.