Annecy 2-4 Martigues – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Martigues encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Martigues in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Parc des Sports this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parc des Sports this season.
Martigues have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Martigues have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.90 in Annecy's favour (1.90 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.48 xG and Martigues 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.987 / defence 1.064 | Martigues attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.115. Data: 39 Annecy games / 1 Martigues games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Annecy 48% | Draw 27% | Martigues 25%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Martigues 4.00. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Martigues | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 48% | Draw 27% | Martigues 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Annecy 1.48 / Martigues 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.987 / def 1.064 | Martigues attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Annecy (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Martigues xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Martigues kick off?
Annecy vs Martigues kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Martigues?
Annecy 2 - 4 Martigues.
Where is Annecy vs Martigues being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Martigues part of?
Annecy vs Martigues is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Martigues?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 48% chance of winning, Martigues a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Martigues?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Annecy and Martigues will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Martigues have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Martigues?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Martigues in?
Annecy (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Martigues (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Annecy's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Martigues's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Martigues's attack (0.85x) against Annecy's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.71
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.49
1.01
Martigues xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
6%
17.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Martigues?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Annecy and Martigues expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Annecy and 1.01 for Martigues, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Martigues?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Annecy come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Martigues sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Martigues, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Martigues — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Martigues are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Annecy's scoring rate against Martigues's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Martigues in 0%.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Martigues
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Martigues in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Martigues have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Annecy or Martigues been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Martigues in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
0
Draws
2
Martigues
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Martigues?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Martigues have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Martigues last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Martigues 2-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Martigues?
Martigues have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Martigues away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Martigues?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Annecy's recent matches and 0% of Martigues's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Martigues usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Annecy's recent games and 0% of Martigues's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Martigues tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Martigues in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Martigues cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Martigues beat Annecy 2-4 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.48 xG and Martigues 1.01 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Martigues outscored their 1.01 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Martigues attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 48% | Draw 27% | Martigues 25%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Martigues win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 0%, Martigues 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Martigues winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Annecy shipped 4 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Martigues scored 4 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.