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Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy and Lorient finished level at 0-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.17 xG and Lorient 1.32 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lorient landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Lorient attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 33% | Draw 27% | Lorient 40%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 48%, Lorient 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (64 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lorient's trading profile (64 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.33 PPG, Lorient 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights