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Shock result as Le Mans defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Mans beat Annecy 1-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.49 xG and Le Mans 1.12 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Le Mans outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.05 / defence 0.86 against Le Mans attack 1.10 / defence 1.12, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 46% | Draw 26% | Le Mans 28%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Le Mans win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 44%, Le Mans 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Le Mans's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.38 PPG, Le Mans 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Mans win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights