Annecy 0-1 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Laval at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Annecy welcome Laval to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Laval have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Laval are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.92 xG and Laval 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.872 / defence 1.262 | Laval attack 1.009 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 0.986. Data: 2 Annecy games / 2 Laval games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Annecy 26% | Draw 31% | Laval 43%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Laval 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Laval at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 26% | Draw 31% | Laval 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Annecy 0.92 / Laval 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.872 / def 1.262 | Laval attack 1.009 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.061 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Laval (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Laval xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Laval kick off?
Annecy vs Laval kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Laval?
Annecy 0 - 1 Laval.
Where is Annecy vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Laval part of?
Annecy vs Laval is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 26% chance of winning, Laval a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Annecy and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Laval?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Laval in?
Annecy (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L. Laval (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.87x the league average against Laval's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
26%
3.86
31%
3.22
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.17
1.26
Laval xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
7%
13.54
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.3 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Annecy and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Annecy and 1.26 for Laval, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Laval, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Laval by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Annecy heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Laval in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Laval
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Laval in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Laval have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Annecy or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Laval in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Laval runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Annecy won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Laval specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
3
Draws
2
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, Laval have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Laval 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Laval?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Annecy's recent matches and 50% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Annecy's recent games and 50% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Laval tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Laval in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Annecy 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Annecy 0-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.92 xG and Laval 1.26 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Annecy fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.87 / defence 1.26 against Laval attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 26% | Draw 31% | Laval 43%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 50%, Laval 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Laval arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Laval conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.