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Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy and Laval finished level at 0-0 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.23 xG and Laval 1.23 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Laval landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Laval attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 36% | Draw 27% | Laval 36%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 38%, Laval 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Laval's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.40 PPG, Laval 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights