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Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Annecy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Annecy 1-4 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.68 xG and Guingamp 0.68 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 0.68 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.05 / defence 0.74 against Guingamp attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 61% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 14%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Guingamp win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 54%, Guingamp 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Guingamp's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.38 PPG, Guingamp 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights