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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Annecy cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Grenoble.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Grenoble 3-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.21 xG and Grenoble 1.06 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Grenoble attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 39% | Draw 29% | Grenoble 32%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 48%, Grenoble 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Grenoble's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.32 PPG, Grenoble 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Grenoble (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights