🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Annecy and Dunkerque share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 2, as Annecy and Dunkerque drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.43 xG and Dunkerque 1.04 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dunkerque outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Dunkerque attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 44% | Draw 30% | Dunkerque 26%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 34%, Dunkerque 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Dunkerque's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.46 PPG, Dunkerque 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights