Annecy vs Clermont Foot – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Annecy (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Annecy face Clermont Foot.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Clermont Foot travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Annecy are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Annecy register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Clermont Foot in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Annecy have won 3, Clermont Foot 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 53% versus Clermont Foot 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 53% | Clermont Foot 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.55 xG and Clermont Foot 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.108 / defence 0.816 | Clermont Foot attack 1.016 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Annecy games / 38 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 48% | Draw 29% | Clermont Foot 24%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Clermont Foot 4.17. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 70% | Clermont Foot 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 48% | Draw 29% | Clermont Foot 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Annecy 1.55 / Clermont Foot 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.108 / def 0.816 | Clermont Foot attack 1.016 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Annecy (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Clermont Foot xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Annecy vs Clermont Foot is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Parc des Sports.
Where is Annecy vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Clermont Foot part of?
Annecy vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 48% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Annecy and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Clermont Foot?
Record (4 meetings): Annecy 3W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Annecy and Clermont Foot in?
Annecy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.11x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.49
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.59
1.04
Clermont Foot xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
5%
19.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Annecy and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Annecy and 1.04 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 17W 8D 13L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot's form line: 9W 13D 16L from 38 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Annecy are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Venue Form
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 4W 4D 10L from 18 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.05 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 17W 8D 13L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 9W 13D 16L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Clermont Foot away?
Annecy's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.67 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Annecy or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Annecy's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Annecy
0
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Annecy 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Clermont Foot?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 61%, Clermont Foot 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Annecy) and 56% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Annecy's games and 56% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Annecy's recent games and 56% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.