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Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out Caen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Caen 1-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.59 xG and Caen 1.03 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Caen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Caen attack 0.88 / defence 1.35, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 50% | Draw 25% | Caen 25%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 52%, Caen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Caen's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.37 PPG, Caen 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights