Annecy 1-1 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Boulogne travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Boulogne have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.40 PPG versus Boulogne's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Boulogne in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 57% versus Boulogne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 57% | Boulogne 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.38 xG and Boulogne 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.104 / defence 0.861 | Boulogne attack 0.771 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.216. Data: 46 Annecy games / 12 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 50% | Draw 28% | Boulogne 22%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Boulogne 4.55. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 60% | Boulogne 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 50% | Draw 28% | Boulogne 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Annecy 1.38 / Boulogne 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.104 / def 0.861 | Boulogne attack 0.771 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Annecy (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Boulogne xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Boulogne kick off?
Annecy vs Boulogne kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 October 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Boulogne?
Annecy 1 - 1 Boulogne.
Where is Annecy vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Boulogne part of?
Annecy vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 50% chance of winning, Boulogne a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Annecy and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Boulogne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Boulogne in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Boulogne (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Annecy's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Boulogne's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.61
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.18
0.81
Boulogne xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
6%
17.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Annecy and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Annecy and 0.81 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 5W 3D 6L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boulogne's form line: 4W 1D 9L from 14 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.29 PPG, Boulogne on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
On the road, Boulogne have gone 3W 0D 3L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.93 PPG overall record — Boulogne travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 4W 1D 9L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Boulogne away?
Annecy's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.50 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Annecy
1
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Boulogne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Boulogne 1-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Boulogne?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 67%, Boulogne 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Annecy) and 33% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Boulogne in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Annecy's recent matches and 33% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Annecy's recent games and 33% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Boulogne tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Boulogne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 13, as Annecy and Boulogne drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.38 xG and Boulogne 0.81 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.10 / defence 0.86 against Boulogne attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 50% | Draw 28% | Boulogne 22%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 57%, Boulogne 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Boulogne's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.29 PPG, Boulogne 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.