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Poisson model rates Annecy at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Boulogne travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Boulogne have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Boulogne's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.40 PPG versus Boulogne's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

In-Play Profile

Annecy in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Boulogne in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 57% versus Boulogne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 57% | Boulogne 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.38 xG and Boulogne 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.104 / defence 0.861 | Boulogne attack 0.771 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.216. Data: 46 Annecy games / 12 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Annecy 50% | Draw 28% | Boulogne 22%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Boulogne 4.55. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 60% | Boulogne 33%.

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