Annecy 3-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Amiens travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 September 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.40 PPG versus Amiens's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Annecy have won 1, Amiens 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with Amiens winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Amiens in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 58% versus Amiens 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 58% | Amiens 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.22 xG and Amiens 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.056 / defence 1.340 | Amiens attack 0.927 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.145. Data: 41 Annecy games / 41 Amiens games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Annecy 32% | Draw 26% | Amiens 42%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Amiens 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 50% | Amiens 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 32% | Draw 26% | Amiens 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Annecy 1.22 / Amiens 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.056 / def 1.340 | Amiens attack 0.927 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Amiens (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Amiens xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Amiens kick off?
Annecy vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Amiens?
Annecy 3 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Annecy vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Amiens part of?
Annecy vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 32% chance of winning, Amiens a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Annecy and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Amiens?
Record (4 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 1 | Amiens 2W.
What form are Annecy and Amiens in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Amiens (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Annecy's attack rating (1.06) and Amiens's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (41/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
32%
3.10
26%
3.85
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.64
1.42
Amiens xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
8%
12.87
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Annecy and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Annecy and 1.42 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy's recent record stands at 13W 11D 17L from 41 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 10L across 41 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.22 PPG, Amiens on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 5W 6D 9L from 20 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Amiens's away record stands at 7W 7D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.98 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Amiens in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Amiens have gone 14W 17D 10L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Amiens away?
Amiens's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.05 PPG; Amiens away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Annecy or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Amiens in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2024, when Annecy won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Annecy
1
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 4, Amiens have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Annecy 2-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Amiens?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 60%, Amiens 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Annecy) and 30% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Amiens in 35%; Annecy have failed to score in 30% of games; Amiens in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Annecy's recent matches and 35% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Annecy's recent games and 30% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Amiens tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Amiens in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Annecy run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Amiens 3-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.22 xG and Amiens 1.42 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Amiens landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.06 / defence 1.34 against Amiens attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 32% | Draw 26% | Amiens 42%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 58%, Amiens 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Amiens's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.22 PPG, Amiens 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.