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Annecy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ajaccio.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Ajaccio 2-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.05 xG and Ajaccio 0.79 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.79 / defence 0.97 against Ajaccio attack 0.74 / defence 0.95, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 41% | Draw 32% | Ajaccio 27%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 48%, Ajaccio 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ajaccio's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.32 PPG, Ajaccio 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights