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Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Amiens 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Amiens 0-1 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.26 xG and Saint Etienne 1.29 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Amiens fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Saint Etienne attack 1.09 / defence 1.17, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 36% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 37%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 52%, Saint Etienne 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.30 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights