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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Amiens defy the odds to beat Rodez 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Amiens beat Rodez 2-1 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.03 xG and Rodez 1.27 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.75 / defence 0.98 against Rodez attack 1.03 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 30% | Draw 28% | Rodez 42%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 50%, Rodez 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Rodez's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.25 PPG, Rodez 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights