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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Amiens and Reims share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Amiens and Reims finished level at 2-2 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.88 xG and Reims 1.07 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Reims outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against Reims attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 56% | Draw 24% | Reims 21%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 53%, Reims 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Reims's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.26 PPG, Reims 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights