Amiens 3-0 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host RED Star FC 93 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Amiens haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.35 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.859 / defence 0.925 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.161. Data: 38 Amiens games / 0 RED Star FC 93 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Amiens 46% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 24%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | RED Star FC 93 4.17. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 46% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Amiens 1.35 / RED Star FC 93 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.859 / def 0.925 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Amiens (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.91
RED Star FC 93 xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs RED Star FC 93?
Amiens 3 - 0 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 46% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Amiens and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and RED Star FC 93?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and RED Star FC 93 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Amiens (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.86x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
46%
2.18
30%
3.34
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.26
0.91
RED Star FC 93 xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
6%
15.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Amiens and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Amiens and 0.91 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Pre-Season
RED Star FC 93
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and RED Star FC 93 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Amiens
0
Draws
2
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, RED Star FC 93 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Amiens 1-3 RED Star FC 93.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Amiens run riot with a 3-0 hammering of RED Star FC 93.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat RED Star FC 93 3-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.35 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.91 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RED Star FC 93 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 46% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 24%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.