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Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Amiens 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat Amiens 0-1 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.66 xG and PAU 1.99 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Amiens fell 1.7 short of their projected output. PAU landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.07 / defence 1.55 against PAU attack 1.13 / defence 1.33, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 32% | Draw 24% | PAU 45%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 54%, PAU 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

PAU's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.06 PPG, PAU 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights