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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Amiens cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Amiens beat PAU 4-2 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.70 xG and PAU 1.19 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.97 / defence 1.13 against PAU attack 0.97 / defence 1.24, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 49% | Draw 24% | PAU 27%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, PAU 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

PAU's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.33 PPG, PAU 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights