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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Nancy defy the odds to beat Amiens 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nancy beat Amiens 1-2 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.39 xG and Nancy 1.06 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nancy outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against Nancy attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 44% | Draw 27% | Nancy 29%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Nancy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 59%, Nancy 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Nancy's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.06 PPG, Nancy 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nancy win broke the near-deadlock. Nancy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights