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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Le Mans edge out Amiens 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Mans beat Amiens 3-4 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.31 xG and Le Mans 2.04 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Mans outscored their 2.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.98 / defence 1.44 against Le Mans attack 1.21 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 24% | Draw 22% | Le Mans 54%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 56%, Le Mans 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Le Mans's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Mans (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights