Amiens vs Laval – Match Report

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Laval cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Amiens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval beat Amiens 1-3 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.10 xG and Laval 0.89 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Laval outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.98 / defence 0.80 against Laval attack 1.10 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 40% | Draw 31% | Laval 29%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Laval win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 36%, Laval 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Laval's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.43 PPG, Laval 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Laval (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights