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Prediction vindicated as Grenoble edge out Amiens 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grenoble beat Amiens 2-3 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.07 xG and Grenoble 1.15 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grenoble outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.78 / defence 0.98 against Grenoble attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 33% | Draw 29% | Grenoble 38%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 52%, Grenoble 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Grenoble's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.26 PPG, Grenoble 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights