🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Grenoble run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Amiens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grenoble beat Amiens 1-4 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.35 xG and Grenoble 0.82 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Grenoble outscored their 0.82 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Grenoble attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 49% | Draw 28% | Grenoble 23%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Grenoble win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 38%, Grenoble 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Grenoble's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.37 PPG, Grenoble 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights