Amiens 1-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amiens at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne plays host to Amiens versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 20 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Amiens (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
Clermont Foot have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Amiens. A 0.70 PPG lead over Clermont Foot (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 40% versus Clermont Foot 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 32% | Clermont Foot 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.24 xG and Clermont Foot 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.014 / defence 0.764 | Clermont Foot attack 0.851 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.098. Amiens's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Amiens games / 4 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 49% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 21%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Clermont Foot 4.76. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 40% | Clermont Foot 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 49% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 36% | xG Amiens 1.24 / Clermont Foot 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.014 / def 0.764 | Clermont Foot attack 0.851 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Amiens (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Clermont Foot xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Amiens vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Amiens 1 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Amiens vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Clermont Foot part of?
Amiens vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 49% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Amiens and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Clermont Foot in?
Amiens (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Amiens's attack rating (1.01) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.85x) against Amiens's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.36
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.96
0.71
Clermont Foot xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
6%
16.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Amiens and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Amiens and 0.71 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amiens come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 17D 10L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 0.76 PPG from 38 outings (6W 11D 21L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amiens carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Amiens's home form reads 4W 10D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amiens are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.76 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 11W 17D 10L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 6W 11D 21L in their last 38 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Clermont Foot away?
Amiens's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.22 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Amiens or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Amiens
1
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Amiens 4-3 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Clermont Foot?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amiens see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 39%, Clermont Foot 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Amiens) and 56% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 39% of games; Clermont Foot in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Amiens's recent matches and 50% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Amiens's recent games and 56% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Clermont Foot 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Clermont Foot 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.24 xG and Clermont Foot 0.71 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.01 / defence 0.76 against Clermont Foot attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 49% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 21%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 32%, Clermont Foot 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.