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Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Amiens 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Amiens 0-1 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.75 xG and Annecy 1.12 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Amiens fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against Annecy attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 51% | Draw 26% | Annecy 23%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 56%, Annecy 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Annecy's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.31 PPG, Annecy 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights