Ajaccio 1-0 Nimes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nimes make the trip to Stade François Coty to face Ajaccio in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ajaccio's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Ajaccio's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade François Coty this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nimes (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nimes away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Ajaccio against 1.60 for Nimes. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Ajaccio have seen both teams score in just 10% of their matches, Nimes in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ajaccio lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Ajaccio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Nimes — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ajaccio 14% | Nimes 52%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 10% | Nimes 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 0.94 xG and Nimes 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.711 / defence 0.935 | Nimes attack 0.918 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 0.912. Ajaccio's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Ajaccio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Ajaccio games / 29 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 37% | Draw 34% | Nimes 28%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Nimes 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Nimes's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajaccio at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.72 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 10% | Nimes 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 37% | Draw 34% | Nimes 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Ajaccio 0.94 / Nimes 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.711 / def 0.935 | Nimes attack 0.918 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.002 / away 0.912 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Nimes xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Nimes kick off?
Ajaccio vs Nimes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Nimes?
Ajaccio 1 - 0 Nimes.
Where is Ajaccio vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Nimes part of?
Ajaccio vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 37% chance of winning, Nimes a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Ajaccio and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Nimes?
Record (1 meetings): Ajaccio 1W | Draws 0 | Nimes 0W.
What form are Ajaccio and Nimes in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Nimes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ajaccio's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Nimes's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Nimes's attack (0.92x) against Ajaccio's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
37%
2.69
34%
2.91
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.72
0.78
Nimes xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.9 | 14.0 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.78 for Nimes, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 15W 7D 7L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Nimes's form line: 11W 6D 12L from 29 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Ajaccio are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nimes.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ajaccio have posted 1.93 PPG from 14 outings (8W 3D 3L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 6W 2D 6L from 14 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajaccio are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.52 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.21 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Current Season
Nimes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Nimes in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 15W 7D 7L in their last 29 games (1.79 PPG), while Nimes have gone 11W 6D 12L in their last 29 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Nimes away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.93 PPG; Nimes away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Nimes in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ajaccio
0
Draws
0
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Nimes?
From 2 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 2, Nimes have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Ajaccio 1-0 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Nimes?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 14% (Ajaccio) and 36% (Nimes) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Ajaccio) and 57% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Nimes in 36%; Ajaccio have failed to score in 43% of games; Nimes in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 36% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Ajaccio's recent games and 57% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Nimes tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Nimes in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Nimes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Nimes 1-0 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 0.94 xG and Nimes 0.78 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.71 / defence 0.94 against Nimes attack 0.92 / defence 1.32, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 37% | Draw 34% | Nimes 28%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 10%, Nimes 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nimes's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.