Ajaccio vs Bastia – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 0.93x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.59
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.21
0.85
Bastia xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.85 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.