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Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Ajaccio 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Ajaccio 1-2 at Stade Michel-Moretti, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.19 xG and Annecy 0.95 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Annecy outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.79 / defence 0.92 against Annecy attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 42% | Draw 29% | Annecy 29%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 32%, Annecy 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajaccio's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Annecy's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.13 PPG, Annecy 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Ajaccio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights