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Stade Brestois 29 cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Toulouse.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stade Brestois 29 beat Toulouse 2-4 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.12 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.05 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 1.05 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.79 / defence 0.88 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.85 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 36% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 33%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Stade Brestois 29 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 55%, Stade Brestois 29 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.28 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights