Toulouse 1-3 Marseille – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Marseille at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Marseille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Toulouse welcome Marseille to Stadium de Toulouse. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Toulouse have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's home record at Stadium de Toulouse: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadium de Toulouse this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Marseille stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Marseille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Marseille's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.60 PPG versus Marseille's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Toulouse register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Marseille in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Toulouse have won 0, Marseille 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Toulouse trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Marseille trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 61% versus Marseille 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 58% | Marseille 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.12 xG and Marseille 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.797 / defence 0.920 | Marseille attack 1.361 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.330. Toulouse's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Marseille have an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Toulouse games / 36 Marseille games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 25% | Draw 26% | Marseille 49%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Marseille 2.04. Marseille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Marseille at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Marseille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 60% | Marseille 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 25% | Draw 26% | Marseille 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Toulouse 1.12 / Marseille 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.797 / def 0.920 | Marseille attack 1.361 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Marseille (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Marseille xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Marseille kick off?
Toulouse vs Marseille kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Marseille?
Toulouse 1 - 3 Marseille.
Where is Toulouse vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Marseille part of?
Toulouse vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 25% chance of winning, Marseille a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Toulouse and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Marseille?
Record (4 meetings): Toulouse 0W | Draws 2 | Marseille 2W.
What form are Toulouse and Marseille in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Marseille (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.80x the league average against Marseille's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Marseille's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
25%
4.05
26%
3.83
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.79
1.67
Marseille xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
21.45
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.67 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse's recent record stands at 11W 12D 13L from 36 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Marseille, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 10L across 36 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Marseille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.25 PPG, Marseille on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 3W 8D 7L from 18 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Marseille's away record stands at 4W 5D 9L across 18 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Marseille's season.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.64 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Toulouse have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Marseille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Marseille in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 11W 12D 13L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Marseille have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Marseille away?
Toulouse's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 0.94 PPG; Marseille away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Marseille runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Dec 2022, when Marseille won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Marseille specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Toulouse
3
Draws
5
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Marseille?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 0, Marseille have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Toulouse 0-1 Marseille.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 67%, Marseille 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Toulouse) and 50% (Marseille). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse have failed to score in 28% of games; Marseille in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Marseille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Toulouse's games and 61% of Marseille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Toulouse's matches and 50% of Marseille's.
Do Toulouse and Marseille tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Marseille in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Marseille cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Toulouse 1-3 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.12 xG and Marseille 1.67 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Marseille outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.80 / defence 0.92 against Marseille attack 1.36 / defence 0.93, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 25% | Draw 26% | Marseille 49%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 58%, Marseille 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Marseille's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.25 PPG, Marseille 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Marseille win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.