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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Rennes run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Strasbourg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rennes beat Strasbourg 0-3 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.82 xG and Rennes 1.45 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Strasbourg fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Rennes outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.09 / defence 0.86 against Rennes attack 1.41 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 45% | Draw 25% | Rennes 30%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 60%, Rennes 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Rennes's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.61 PPG, Rennes 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights