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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Strasbourg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Nice 3-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.65 xG and Nice 0.96 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.00 / defence 0.83 against Nice attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 54% | Draw 24% | Nice 22%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 59%, Nice 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Nice's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.59 PPG, Nice 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights