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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Strasbourg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lille.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Lille 2-0 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 2.10 xG and Lille 1.14 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lille landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.29 / defence 0.77 against Lille attack 1.22 / defence 1.00, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 59% | Draw 21% | Lille 20%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 62%, Lille 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Lille's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.69 PPG, Lille 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights