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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Strasbourg 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre beat Strasbourg 2-3 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 2.08 xG and Le Havre 1.31 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Le Havre outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.26 / defence 0.85 against Le Havre attack 1.11 / defence 1.14, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 55% | Draw 22% | Le Havre 23%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Le Havre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 58%, Le Havre 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Le Havre's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Strasbourg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights