Strasbourg 5-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Strasbourg at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Strasbourg vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Auxerre travel to Stade de la Meinau to take on Strasbourg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Strasbourg stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg's home record at Stade de la Meinau: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Auxerre — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Strasbourg at 1.30 PPG versus Auxerre's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Strasbourg have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Auxerre have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Strasbourg a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Strasbourg trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Auxerre trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 67% versus Auxerre 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 69% | Auxerre 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 2.14 xG and Auxerre 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 1.004 / defence 1.079 | Auxerre attack 1.140 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.353. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Strasbourg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Strasbourg games / 42 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 48% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 29%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Auxerre 3.45. Strasbourg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Strasbourg at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Strasbourg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.81 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Strasbourg 80% | Auxerre 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 48% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Strasbourg 2.14 / Auxerre 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 1.004 / def 1.079 | Auxerre attack 1.140 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Auxerre xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Auxerre kick off?
Strasbourg vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Strasbourg 5 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Strasbourg vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Auxerre part of?
Strasbourg vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 48% chance of winning, Auxerre a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Strasbourg and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Auxerre?
Record (6 meetings): Strasbourg 4W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Strasbourg and Auxerre in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Strasbourg's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Strasbourg's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
48%
2.08
23%
4.44
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
3.81
1.66
Auxerre xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.63
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
12%
8.53
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
3%
29.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.66 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 17W 9D 16L from 42 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 20L across 42 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Strasbourg on 1.43 PPG, Auxerre on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 10W 4D 6L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 3W 6D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Strasbourg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Strasbourg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.10 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 17W 9D 16L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 11W 11D 20L in their last 42 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Auxerre away?
Strasbourg's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.70 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Strasbourg and Auxerre runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2026, when Strasbourg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Strasbourg's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Strasbourg
1
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Auxerre?
From 7 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 5, Auxerre have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Strasbourg 5-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Auxerre?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 60%, Auxerre 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Strasbourg) and 50% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Strasbourg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Auxerre in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Strasbourg's games and 55% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Strasbourg vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Strasbourg's matches and 50% of Auxerre's.
Do Strasbourg and Auxerre tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Strasbourg run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Auxerre 5-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 2.14 xG and Auxerre 1.66 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against Auxerre attack 1.14 / defence 1.34, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 48% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 29%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 69%, Auxerre 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.43 PPG, Auxerre 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.