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Dominant Strasbourg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Auxerre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Auxerre 3-0 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 2.19 xG and Auxerre 0.97 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.17 / defence 0.84 against Auxerre attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 65% | Draw 19% | Auxerre 16%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 60%, Auxerre 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Auxerre's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights