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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Strasbourg run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Angers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Angers 5-0 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.35 xG and Angers 0.85 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Angers landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.97 / defence 0.92 against Angers attack 0.77 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 48% | Draw 28% | Angers 24%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 58%, Angers 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Angers's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Angers (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights