Stade Brestois 29 4-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Stade Brestois 29 welcome Saint Etienne to Stade Francis-Le Blé. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stade Brestois 29 have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Francis-Le Blé this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stade Brestois 29 at 1.40 PPG versus Saint Etienne's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Stade Brestois 29 have won 1, Saint Etienne 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Saint Etienne trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 42% versus Saint Etienne 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stade Brestois 29 39% | Saint Etienne 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.43 xG and Saint Etienne 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.933 / defence 1.278 | Saint Etienne attack 0.719 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.319. Data: 36 Stade Brestois 29 games / 2 Saint Etienne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 41% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 31%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Saint Etienne 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Brestois 29 at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Stade Brestois 29 40% | Saint Etienne 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 41% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.43 / Saint Etienne 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.933 / def 1.278 | Saint Etienne attack 0.719 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Saint Etienne xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne?
Stade Brestois 29 4 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 41% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne?
Record (2 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.65
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.64
1.21
Saint Etienne xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.21 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stade Brestois 29's recent record stands at 17W 10D 9L from 36 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 11L across 36 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Brestois 29 on 1.69 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stade Brestois 29 have managed 7W 7D 3L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 7W 4D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.31 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Saint Etienne in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Early Season
Saint Etienne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 17W 10D 9L in their last 36 games (1.69 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 18W 7D 11L in their last 36 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Saint Etienne away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.65 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2024, when Stade Brestois 29 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
1
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Saint Etienne 3-3 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Stade Brestois 29 41% BTTS, Saint Etienne 24%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Stade Brestois 29 and 35% for Saint Etienne.
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 53%; Saint Etienne in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 24% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 35% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stade Brestois 29 run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Saint Etienne 4-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.43 xG and Saint Etienne 1.21 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.93 / defence 1.28 against Saint Etienne attack 0.72 / defence 1.05, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 41% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 31%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 39%, Saint Etienne 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.69 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.